SEDE LA PAZ

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Author: search.filters.author.Monterrey Arce, Javier

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    Bolivia: Impact of Shocks and Poverty Policy on Household Welfare
    (Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo". Escuela de la producción y la competitividad., 2004) Barja Daza, Gover; Monterrey Arce, Javier; Villarroel Börth, Sergio
    Esta investigación realiza un análisis de los impactos de corto plazo en la pobreza de los gastos pro-pobres y el gasto social total en el período de la recesión económica boliviana (1998-2002). Las características observadas de la recesión fueron simuladas a tracés de la simulación de los impactos de los shocks y el gasto social en un entorno de bajo crecimiento: i) en los agregados macroecónomicos del consumo, ingreso, ahorro y precios (basado en un modelo estático simple 1-2-3); ii) en los niveles de ingreso y consumo de los hogares y iii) en indicadores de pobreza basados en el consumo. This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas.
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    The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia.
    (Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo"- VLIRUOS. Escuela de la Producción y Competitividad., 2005-02) Barja Daza, Gover; Monterrey Arce, Javier; Villarroel Böhrt, Sergio
    This paper uses a CES function to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution in consumption for non-tradables relative to tradables in a dependent economy framework. The methodology for generating data on real consumption of tradable and non-tradable goods, real prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and real absorption is based on the Bolivian Input-Output Matrix, producing quarterly data for the period 1990.1 to 2002.4. The data identify Bolivia as a country highly open to trade, with an average ratio of 55 percent in the value of exports and imports relative to GDP, non-tradable production accounting for 52 percent of GDP, and differences in the behavior of the internal and external real exchange rates. The HEGY test is used to identify and separate out seasonal unit roots in the data. A cointegration relationship was found between real absorption, the nontradable to tradable consumption ratio and the non-tradable to tradable price ratio, suggesting inelasticity of substitution.